Nearly 30% of the company's pre increased machinery sector enjoys the valuation foam
nearly 30% of the company's pre increased machinery sector enjoys the valuation foam
China Construction machinery information
Guide: the machinery industry with low Industry Valuation has ushered in a small explosion with the support of performance pre increase and the help of low industry valuation. The overall growth rate of the machinery industry was 2.18%, of which Hanzhong precision machinery (27.50,2.50,10.00%) and Sany Heavy Industry (20.92,1.90,9.99%) also rose strongly after the limit rise and ex rights removal, with more than 10
the machinery industry with low industry valuation has ushered in a small outbreak with the support of pre increase performance and low industry valuation. The machinery industry as a whole rose by 2.18%, of which Hanzhong precision machinery (27.50,2.50,10.00%) and Sany Heavy Industry (20.92,1.90,9.99%) also rose strongly after the limit rise and ex dividend, and more than a dozen stocks rose by more than 5%. Researchers are optimistic about the fundamentals of the industry, for the medium and long-term recommendations can be ahead of the layout of leading stocks, but the short-term reminder of the larger increase, do not chase up
performance pre increase has become the engine of rise
among many analysts' optimistic about the machinery industry, performance pre increase has become the engine factor supporting the rise
at present, 100 of the 224 companies in the Shenwan machinery sector released the third quarter performance forecast, of which 81 companies achieved year-on-year growth in performance and 9 companies achieved turnaround. Huang Haifang, an analyst at Soochow securities, believes that the machinery and equipment sector maintained a boom in the first half of the year in the third quarter, and enterprises with significant growth in the third quarter should be given appropriate attention recently
in terms of the sub sectors of the machinery industry, although the sales volume of machine tools also hit a record high in the third quarter, due to the low efficiency of industry management and the cancellation of value-added tax preferential policies, the profit growth is relatively low in the machinery industry; The performance of the heavy machinery industry was lower than expected due to the downturn in the downstream and the sharp decline in metallurgical and petrochemical orders last year; In the shipbuilding and offshore engineering industry, the performance growth of CIMC (16.28, -0.40, -2.40%) and Guangzhou shipbuilding International (24.42, -0.46, -1.85%) is expected to be better than that of the industry; As expected, the profit of the railway equipment industry improved month on month; The recovery of oil drilling and production equipment industry is not obvious
not only that, policy level support also gives it more space. The "12th Five Year Plan" of the construction machinery industry predicts that by 2015, the sales scale of China's construction machinery industry will reach 900, reducing the possible production of oxides and other hard debris in the experimental process by 0 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of about 17%, of which exports account for about 20 billion US dollars, becoming the largest exporter. 4. Experimental steps:
and the feedback from the industry is also positive. According to the statistics of China Merchants Securities (23.65, -0.46, -1.91%), the new order index rose from 53.1 last month to 56.3 this month, and the new export order index rose slightly from 52.2 to 52.8. Benefiting from foreign holiday orders, it is expected that the new export order index will continue to rise in October. In addition, the raw material inventory index rebounded from the bottom, the finished product inventory index fell slightly by 1.9 points to 45.0, and the backlog order index rebounded from 48.2 to 50.9. At the same time, the demand for equipment is driven by the rebound in infrastructure construction and real estate investment
for the asymmetric interest rate hike implemented by the central bank on the 20th, Long Hua, chief analyst of Haitong Securities (11.23, -0.26, -2.26%) machinery industry, calculated that the vast majority of manufacturing listed companies themselves had a very limited impact on the reduction of net profit due to the increase in interest expenses caused by the interest rate hike, but with the extension of time
from the historical data, the initial interest rate hike had a positive driving effect on the output and sales revenue of the mainstream machinery products and sub industries, and the loan interest rate reached a certain high level and gradually had a negative impact on the downward range
don't follow the rise in the short term.
judging the trend of the machinery sector, Liu Rong, an analyst of China Merchants Securities machinery industry, summarized that "the performance in the first half of the year was driven, and the valuation foam was enjoyed in the second half of the year." As for the "foam", he explained that the market generally believes that the reasonable valuation of machinery stocks is 15 times, while it believes that the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, which benefits from the upgrading of China's industrial structure, has a reasonable dynamic PE of about 20 times, so it is called "enjoying the foam"
xunjian, the machinery team of Hongyuan securities (21.49,0.28,1.32%), also believes that the overall valuation of the industry is still relatively low, and the continuous growth of performance makes the overall valuation of the industry only slightly higher than the financial services sector, far lower than other sectors. "Because the industry performance will continue to grow in the next quarter, the relatively undervalued value of the industry will still exist."
for the fourth quarter strategy of the machinery industry, Guo Qiang, a researcher at first venture securities, directly gave bold suggestions on actively distributing leading stocks and buying early and earning early. Construction machinery and railway equipment are mainly recommended
PE in the machinery industry also reached 30 times in 2007, which is quite similar to this year. However, there is a slight difference in the transformation of economic growth mode, fixed asset investment has changed in industries and regions, and the economic recovery in Europe and the United States is weak
Liu Rong believes that the most important thing to invest in cyclical industries is to grasp the investment time point. Even if it is optimistic in the long term, short-term policies and expected fluctuations may affect the valuation. Judging from demand, costs, policies, valuation and other factors, he is still optimistic about the industry, but he suggests that the short-term increase is large and do not follow up
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